新浪娱乐讯 第53届格莱美奖提名将于北京时间明天凌晨公布,新浪音乐针对这一年各位大腕儿的表现,对提名名单做出独家预测。注:预测名单中的第一梯队、第二梯队和候补按提名希望大小依次排列,每个梯队中的顺序也是按提名可能大小依次排列。
通类大奖
Song Of The Year(年度歌曲)
Sade - Soldier Of Love
Florence & The Machine - Dog Days Are Over
Lady Gaga – Bad Romance
Lady Antebellum - Need You Now
Eminem & Rihanna - Love The Way U Lie
独家解析:
Sade - Soldier Of Love
(R&B类的代表,其实本来Janelle Monae的<tightrope>水准更高一些,但商业成绩实在是太暗淡了,所以提名的希望赶不上Sade十年磨一剑)
Florence & The Machine - Dog Days Are Over
(Rock类代表,这个提名基本没悬念了,二号种子<Disturbed – Another Way To Die>的商业成绩跟这个没法比,再说Grammy一向不待见金属,只支持各种跨界…)
Lady Gaga – Bad Romance
(Pop类代表,基本也是没悬念的提名,难不成Grammy给Justin Bieber和Kesha么…)
Lady Antebellum - Need You Now
(Country类代表,依然没悬念)
Eminem & Rihanna - Love The Way U Lie
(Rap类代表,本来Jayz & Alicia Keys - Empire State Of Mind希望更大,但人家硬是没在这报名…)
Record Of The Year(年度制作)
Jayz & Alicia Keys - Empire State Of Mind
Eminem & Rihanna - Love The Way U Lie
Florence & The Machine - Dog Days Are Over
Lady Gaga – Bad Romance
Janelle Monae –Tightrope
独家解析:
Jayz & Alicia Keys - Empire State Of Mind
Eminem & Rihanna - Love The Way U Lie
(Rap界今年的两只强单,在年度制作的提名上应该是可以双黄蛋了,都太优秀了)
Florence & The Machine - Dog Days Are Over
(Rock类代表)
Lady Gaga – Bad Romance
(Pop类代表)
Janelle Monae –Tightrope
(R&B类代表,还是为这支歌曲的商业成绩捏把汗,但是制作的实在太精良了,虽然被市场埋没。Sade - Soldier Of Love随时待命替补吧)
第二梯队:
Lady Antebellum - Need You Now
(Country类代表,虽然在美利坚火了整整一年,但考虑是Record Of The Year, 只能说有希望突围)
La Roux – In For The Kill
(Dance类代表,不知道为啥没有报商业成绩更好的Bulletproof, 要是报这歌,希望就大太多了)
Album Of The Year(年度专辑)
Lady Gaga – The Fame Monster
Eminem - Recovery
Sade - Soldier Of Love
Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
Neil Young – Le Noise
独家解析:
Lady Gaga – The Fame Monster
(Pop类代表,没啥说的,去年Pop类商业和口碑都双赢)
替补:Rihanna - Rated R
Eminem - Recovery
(Rap类代表,其实Eminem这张相比他以往很多专辑,整体只能说还好,但综合其强大的商业成绩,让这张的提名筹码增加了很多)
替补:Jayz - The Blueprints 3/Big Boi - Sir Lucious Left Foot...The Son Of Chico Dusty
Sade – Soldier Of Love
(R&B类代表,虽然有更加精彩的Janelle Monae,但考虑到后者商业成绩的凄惨状,Sade的筹码明显更大一些)
替补:Janelle Monae - The Archandroid/ Alicia Keys - The Element Of Freedom
Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
(Alternative代表,在今年Rock类虽百花争艳,但鲜有佼佼者;和Country类波澜不惊,Dance类Grammy不稀罕的前提下。Alternative里必有突围者,那么非Arcade Fire这张叫好声不断,销量又不差的专辑莫属了)
Neil Young – Le Noise
(Rock类代表,但考虑到发行日期和报名日期太过接近,最后这个本来铁定了的敬老名额有点悬,所以Pearl Jam – Backspacer也有希望拿过Rock类的接力棒。但综合考虑,今年Rock类实在很难拿出一张商业口碑都双赢的专辑,所以这个门类的提名还是有点让人为之捏一把汗)
替补:Pearl Jam – Backspacer
Best New Artist(最佳新人)
Drake
La Roux
Florence & The Machine
Adam Lambert
The XX
Jay Sean
独家解析:
第一梯队:
提名概率按顺序排开
Drake(Rap届代表,但今年Rap届人才比较多,Kid Cudi和B.O.B之间可能也会挤进一人)
La Roux(电子类代表)
Florence & The Machine(另类音乐类代表)
Adam Lambert(Pop类代表)
The XX (摇滚类代表)
Jay Sean(R&B类代表,但鉴于今年新人的竞争过于激烈,可能这个名额会被Pop类或者Rap类的新人挤掉,而且Jay Sean也就在美国算新人,人家欧洲火了几年了…)
第二梯队:
提名概率按顺序排开
Kid Cudi
B.O.B
Justin Bieber
Kesha
Taio Cruz
Owl City
The Script
Susan Boyle
其实都是很有希望的选手,但按照格莱美的口味和提名习惯,应该希望没第一梯队那么大,今年很火的Kesha和Justin Bieber其实不是格莱美好的那口。
POP类
Best Female Pop Vocal Performance 最佳流行女歌手
第一梯队:
Lady Gaga - Bad Romance
Katy Perry - Teenage Dream
(这俩再不提名,今年还能提起啥…)
Christina Aguilera - U Lost Me
(Flop了不要紧,唱功过硬,演绎有佳,提名有戏)
Pink - Glitter In The Air(Live In Australia)
(虽然是live吧,但是在今年竞争不多的情况下,Pink凭借自身在玩命般演出前提下依旧将这歌演绎的游刃有余、艳惊四座,这歌还是非常有戏被提名的)
Barbra Streisand - If U Go Away
(没人了,奶奶顶上吧)
第二梯队:
Mariah Carey - I Want To Know What Love Is
(虽然美国商业不够璀璨,但考虑到流女里R&B类的代表暂缺,MC非常有机会突围)
Corinne Bailey Rae – I’D Do It All Again
Sheryl Crow - Summer Day
Norah Jones - Chasing Pirates
Sarah McLachlan - Lovin' U Is Easy
Susan Boyle - Wild Horses
Leona Lewis – Happy
整体来看,今年的最佳流行女歌手应该是近几年最弱的一年了,竞争不怎么激烈,提名中的亮点也不会太多。
Best Male Pop Vocal Performance 最佳流行男歌手
第一梯队:
John Mayer - Half Of My Heart (摇滚代表,格莱美宠儿)
Michael Buble – Haven’t Met U Yet(流行古典代表)
Jason Derulo - Whatcha Say(R&B类代表)
James Taylor – Carolina In My Mind (敬老)
Adam Lambert – Whata’ya Want From Me (新晋偶像,唱功一流,参赛作品有欠说服力)
第二梯队:
Bob Dylan - Must Be Santa(民谣代表,敬老,但考虑到是圣诞曲,持保留态度)
Bruno Mars – Just The Way You Are(R&B类替补一号)
Michael Jackson - This Is It (缅怀天王)
Taio Curz – Dynamite(R&B类替补二号)
Seal - Secret(格莱美R&B类代表常客+陪跑常客)
Phil Collins -(Love Is Like A)Heatwave(复出,敬老,前格莱美宠儿)
Sting - Soul Cake(格莱美常青树,但是发的是圣诞单曲,提名貌似可能不大)
难得的一年,流男比流女好看…
Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals
第一梯队:
La Roux - Bulletproof Live At Shepherds Bush Empire
Sade – Babyfather
Maroon 5 – Misery
Paramore - The Only Exception
Bon Jovi – What Do You Got?
Gorillaz - Rhinestone Eyes
第二梯队:
MGMT – Congratulations
30 Secs To The Mars - Closer To The Edge
Scissor Sisters - Fire With Fire
Pet Shop Boys – Always On My Mind
The Script – Breakeven
Best Pop Collaboration With Vocals
第一梯队:
Katy Perry & Snoop Dogg - California Gurls
Usher & Will.I.Am – OMG
Shakira & Freshlyground - Waka Waka
Lady Gaga & Beyonce - Telephone
Justin Bieber & Ludacris - Baby
Bob,Eminem &Hayley Williams - Airplanes II
第二梯队:
Timbaland & Justin Timberlake - Carry Out
K’Naan,Will.I.Am&David Guetta - Wavin’ Flag
Rihanna & Slash - Rockstar 101
Enrique & Pitbull - I Like It
Gorillaz,Mos Def & Bobby Womack – Stylo
Herbie Hancock,Pink,India. Arie Seal Etc.- Imagine
Various Artists - We Are The Word
今年的最佳流行合作非常好看,而且第二梯队的前面几支很强大,最后提名结果真说不准
Best Pop Vocal Album
第一梯队:
Rihanna - Rated R
Lady Gaga - The Fame Monster
John Mayer - Battle Studies
Norah Jones - The Fall
Corinne Bailey Rae - The Sea
Brian Wilson – Reimagines Gershwin
第二梯队:
Shakira - She Wolf
Katy Perry - Teenage Dream
Maroon 5 - Hands All Over
Adam Lambert - For Ur Entertainment
Christina Aguilera - Bionic
Sheryl Crow - 100 Miles From Memphis
Carole King & James Taylor - Live At The Troubadour
Kesha – Animal
今年最佳流行专辑竞争也比较激烈,很好看
DANCE类
Best Dance Recording
Kelis - Acapella
Mia - XXXO
La Roux - In For The Kill
Robyn - Dancing On My Own
这四首绝对是今年报名名单里的第一梯队,无论从口碑和反响上来讲,都是今年报名的佼佼者,不出意外的话,应该至少会中三个。
LCD Soundsystem - Pow Pow
The Chemical Brothers – Swoon
Christina Aguilera - Not Myself Tonight
David Guetta &Chris Willis & Fergie &Lmfao – Getting’Over You
这四个是第二梯队的,LCD Soundystem提名的几率更大些,毕竟这歌从艺术性上说,质量绝对出挑,但商业味相对淡一些,所以可能不及第一梯队那几首更有希望。而化学兄弟时隔多年的新专辑的单曲<Swoon>也会是擅长敬老的Grammy优先考虑的。另外,Christina虽然今年复出专辑成绩滑铁卢,但单曲<Not Myself Tonight>在舞曲榜上的表现也算说的过去,加上精良的制作,也很有可能晋级提名梯队。
候补:
Hot Chip - One Life Stand
Crystal Castles – Celestica
Kelly Rowland – Commander
Goldfrapp – Rocket
Little Boots – Remedy
Best Dance/Electronic Album
第一梯队:
Robyn - Body Talk Pt I 或者Robyn - Body Talk Pt II(个人更倾向前者)
Kelis - Flesh Tone
La Roux - La Roux
The Chemical Brothers – Further
这几个没的说,必定会被提名的。
候补:
Little Boots – Hands
Goldfapp – Head First
R&B类
Best Female R&B Vocal Performance
第一梯队:
Alicia Keys - Unthinkable
Mary J Blige - I Am
Erykah Badu - Window Seat
Beyonce - Sweet Dreams Medley(Live)
Corinne Bailey Rea – Closer
这几个至少进三个,Corinne Bailey Rea由于商业上相对一般,可能会被随时替掉。
第二梯队:
Monica - Believin' In Me
Amerie - Heard'em All
Whitney Houston - Worth It
Toni Braxton - Hands Tied
Amerie薄弱的商业成绩是她提名的最大障碍,今年打了翻身仗的Monica很有希望顶上去。最后两位新近复出的R&B Diva提名希望虽有,但不大。
Best Male R&B Vocal Performance
第一梯队:
Drake - Find Ur Love
Robin Thicke - Sex Therapy
Trey Songz – Can’t Be Friends
Ne-Yo - One In A Million
Usher - There Goes My Baby
第二梯队:
Brian Mcknight - What I’ve Been Waiting For
The Dream - Love King
John Legend - Green Lights(Live)
Best R&B Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals
第一梯队:
Alicia Keys & Beyonce - Put It In A Love Song(两大格莱美宠儿的合作,不提名没天理)
John Legend & The Roots – Shine(格莱美宠儿的跨界合作)
Sade - Soldier Of Love(10年磨一剑)
Toni Braxton & Trey Songz – Yesterday
Mary J Blige & Trey Songz - Hood Love
第二梯队:
Mariah Carey & Ne-Yo - Angels Cry
Boys II Men – Amazed
Best R&B Song
第一梯队:
Tightrope
Soldier Of Love
Unthinkable
Find Ur Love
Window Seat
I Am
第二梯队:
Heard'em All
Hands Tied
Hey Daddy
Worth It
Best R&B Album
第一梯队:
Sade - Soldier Of Love
Alicia Keys - The Element Of Freedom
Erykah Badu - New Amerykah Part 2:Return Of The Ankn
Monica - Still Standing
再像08年那样放Erykah和Alicia的鸽子,格莱美真有点说不过去了…
第二梯队:
Robin Thicke - Sex Therapy
Brian Mcknight - Evolution Of A Man
Fantasia - Back To Me
Boyz II Men – Love
Best Contemporary R&B Album
第一梯队:
Janelle Monae - The Archandroid
Mary J Blige - Stronger With Each Tear
Amerie - In Love & War
Mariah Carey - Memoirs Of An Imperfect Angel
第二梯队:
Usher - Raymond V Raymond
Trey Songz - Passion,Pain & Pleasure
R. Kelly – Untitled
Mario – DNA
RAP类
Best Rap Solo Performance
第一梯队:
Eminem - Not Afraid
Drake – Over
Kanye West – Power
T.I – I’M Back
几乎没悬念的四支
第二梯队:
Nicki Minaj - Ur Love(好不容易出来一个女MC,格莱美应该会赏点脸)
Snoop Dogg - I Wanna Rock
T-Pain - Take Ur Shirt Off
Best Rap/Sung Collaboration
第一梯队:
Eminem & Rihanna - Love The Way U Lie
Jayz & Alicia Keys - Empire State Of Mind
B.O.B & Bruno Mars - Nothin' On U
Rihanna & Jeezy – Hard
Drake & Alicia Keys – Firework
这个基本就应该是提名名单了,第二梯队篡权的机会不大,而且Jay-Z和Eminem可以直接争奖了,个人更看好<Empire State Of Mind>。
第二梯队:
Jay Sean & Lil Wayne - Down
Mariah Carey & Nicki Minaj - Up Out My Face
Ciara & Ludacris – Ride
Rick Ross & Neyo - Super High
也就Jay Sean的<Down>有点机会挤进提名里吧,其他的希望不大…
Best Rap Song
Empire State Of Mind
Love The Way U Lie
Not Afraid
Nothin' On U
Just A Dream
Power
最后的得奖结果应该还是Jay-Z和Eminem黑白绕热天王之争
Best Rap Album
第一梯队:
Eminem - Recovery
Jayz - The Blueprints 3
Big Boi - Sir Lucious Left Foot...The Son Of Chico Dusty
The Roots – How I Get Over
Drake - Thank Me Later
B.O.B - The Adventures Of Bobby Ray
第二梯队:
Rick Ross - Teflon Don
Wyclef Jean - From The Hut,To The Projects,To The Mansion
Ludacris - Battle Of The Sexes
同最佳Rap类合作歌曲一样,第二梯队篡权机会不大。
ROCK类
Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance
第一梯队:
John Mayer – Crossroads
Florence & The Machine – Dog Days Are Over
Eric Clapton - Run Back To Ur Side
Neil Young - Angry World
Paul McCartney - Helter Skelter
基本上就是John Mayer和一群爷爷辈的人物争夺老奶奶(Granny)…,对了,还有从大不列颠飘过来,来势汹汹的Florence & The Machine。
第二梯队:
Kid Rock - Born Free
Peter Yorn - Precious Stone
Brandon Flowers – Crossfire
Kid Rock不出意外应该会顶掉第一梯队的一位老爷爷
Best Rock Performance By A Duo Or Gruop With Vocals
第一梯队:
Arcade Fire - Ready To Start
Vampire Weekend - Givin' Up The Sun
The Rolling Stones - Plundered My Soul
Pearl Jam – Amongst The Waves
Linkin Park - The Catalyst
这块出彩的地方全被indie乐队给搞走了,而原本有力的竞争者不是新单不给力,就是新瓶装旧酒,再不就是上张余温未退专辑的残羹冷炙…
第二梯队:
Kings Of Leon – Radioactive
Foo Fighters – Wheel
Green Day - When It’s Time
MGMT – Flash Delirium
30 Seconds To Mars - Kings And Queens
Muse – Resistance
Best Hard Rock Performance
第一梯队:
Disturbed – Another Way To Die
Korn – Oildale(Leave Me Alone)
Ozzy Osbourne - Let Me Hear U Scream
Alice In Chains – A Looking In View
Scorpions – Rasied On Rock
第二梯队:
Slash & Andrew Stockdable – By The Sword
Dead By Sunrise – Crawl Back In
Bullet For My Valentine – Your Betrayal
Rob Zombie – Mars Needs Women
甭管怎么提名了,Disturbed可以直接抱着奖杯走人了。
Best Rock Song
第一梯队:
Florence & The Machine - Dog Days Are Over
Disturbed – Another Way To Die
Neil Young - Angry World
Vampire Weekend - Givin' Up The Sun
Linkin Park - The Catalyst
Kings Of Leon – Radioactive
第二梯队:
Kid Rock - Born Free
Foo Fighters - Wheels
Muse – Resistance
Green Day - When It’s Time
候补:
30 Seconds To Mars - Kings And Queens
Iron Maiden – Coming Home
MGMT – Flash Delirium
Weezer - Memories
同最佳摇滚组合一样,又是Indie乐队们来争风头
Best Rock Album
第一梯队:
Pearl Jam – Backspacer
Neil Young – Le Noise
Disturbed – Asylum
Muse - The Resistance
Linkin Park - The Thousand Suns
第二梯队:
Iron Maiden – The Final Frontier
Slash – Slash
Korn – Korn III :Remember Who You Are
Ozzy Osbourne - Scream
High On Fire – Snakes For The Divine
Tina Turner - Tina Live
这个奖项的竞争还是蛮激烈的,今年的摇滚类竞争虽然没有一只独大,但绝对百花齐放。
Alternative类
Best Alternative Music Album
第一梯队:
Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
LCD Soundsystem – This Is Happening
M.I.A – Maya
The XX – The XX
The Black Keys – Brothers
第二梯队:
Deerhunter – Halcyon Digest
Beach House – Teen Dream
The Drums – The Drums
奖杯应该是Arcade Fire的了…
蘼迷猫/文